NEW DELHI, June 19: India has experienced 20 percent less rainfall since the beginning of the monsoon season on June 1, with no significant advancement in the rain-bearing system between June 12 and 18, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
However, the IMD reports that conditions are now favorable for the monsoon to progress into parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, coastal Andhra Pradesh, northwest Bay of Bengal, Bihar, and Jharkhand over the next three to four days.
From June 1 to 18, India received 64.5 mm of rainfall, which is 20 percent less than the long period average (LPA) of 80.6 mm. Regionally, northwest India recorded 10.2 mm of rainfall (70 percent below normal), central India 50.5 mm (31 percent below normal), the south peninsula 106.6 mm (16 percent above normal), and east and northeast India 146.7 mm (15 percent below normal).
The southwest monsoon reached parts of the Nicobar Islands on May 19, and by May 26, it covered most of the south and parts of the central Bay of Bengal alongside Cyclone Remal. The monsoon reached Kerala and the northeastern states by May 30, two and six days earlier than normal, respectively.
By June 12, the monsoon had covered Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, most parts of southern Maharashtra, and parts of southern Chhattisgarh, southern Odisha, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, and all northeastern states. However, since then, there has been no further progress. As of June 18, the northern limit of the monsoon passes through Navsari, Jalgaon, Amravati, Chandrapur, Bijapur, Sukma, Malkangiri, and Vizianagaram, according to the IMD.
The IMD also reported that 11 meteorological sub-divisions received normal to excess rainfall between June 1 and 18, while 25 sub-divisions experienced deficient to large deficient rainfall. The forecast suggests that June’s average rainfall is likely to be below normal (less than 92 percent of the LPA).
The IMD expects normal to above-normal rainfall in most areas of the southern peninsula and some parts of northeast India, with below-normal rainfall anticipated in many areas of northwest and central India, as well as parts of northeast India.
In a late-May briefing, the IMD projected that the four-month monsoon season (June to September) could see above-normal rainfall, estimated at 106 percent of the LPA of 87 cm. Below-normal rainfall is expected in northeast India, normal rainfall in the northwest, and above-normal rainfall in central and south peninsular regions.
India’s core monsoon zone, covering most rain-fed agricultural areas, is predicted to receive above-normal rainfall this season. The monsoon is critical for India’s agriculture, with 52 percent of the net cultivated area depending on it. It is also essential for replenishing reservoirs crucial for drinking water and power generation.
June and July are pivotal monsoon months for agriculture, as most Kharif crop sowing occurs during this period.
Current conditions indicate the presence of El Nino, which could transition to La Nina by August-September. El Nino, characterized by the warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean, is associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India, while La Nina typically brings plentiful rainfall during the monsoon season.
